聚焦欧冠半决赛 巴萨vs国际米兰

网易红彩今日挑选外籍专家Jarkko带来一场欧冠赛事解析，更多精彩方案可下载“网易红彩”App进行查阅！

1.专家：Jarkko

竞足 周三002欧冠巴萨vs国际米兰

开赛时间：2025-05-01 03:00:00

巴塞罗那在西班牙国王杯决赛中以3-2加时战胜皇家马德里，士气大振。然而，他们可能再次缺少关键球员：前锋罗伯特·莱万多夫斯基和左后卫亚历杭德罗·巴尔德均因大腿伤势无法确定出场时间。莱万多夫斯基缺席的情况下，通常踢边锋的费兰·托雷斯顶替他出任中锋。虽然托雷斯速度更快，但他缺乏波兰球星那样的身体素质和进球的稳定性。

预计首发阵容（4-3-3）：特尔施特根；孔德、阿劳霍、克里斯滕森、坎塞洛；京多安、德容、佩德里；亚马尔、费兰·托雷斯、拉菲尼亚

与此同时，国际米兰正努力从令人失望的一周中恢复，他们在意大利杯半决赛中输给了AC米兰，在意甲联赛中输给了罗马。尽管在对着罗马时掌控球权，但国际米兰未能将优势转化为进球。马库斯·图拉姆可能回归锋线，这对球队来说是一个重大的鼓舞，尽管本杰明·帕瓦尔仍然缺席比赛。国际米兰将依靠其稳固的防守和反击体系。

预计首发阵容（3-5-2）：索默；达米安、德弗赖、巴斯托尼；邓弗里斯、巴雷拉、恰尔汗奥卢、姆希塔良、迪马尔科；图拉姆、劳塔罗

巴塞罗那将通过积极的压迫和动态控球来巩固其统治地位，但国际米兰紧凑的3-5-2阵型和严谨的战术纪律使他们难以攻破。意大利球队本赛季12场欧冠比赛仅失5球，包括在四分之一决赛中以4-3的总比分险胜拜仁慕尼黑。

巴塞罗那在主场占据优势，但国米的韧性和反击威胁使这场比赛势均力敌。预计这将是一场谨慎的、身体对抗激烈的较量。1-1？2-2？我宁愿选择平局而不是2-2，我觉得如果国米整场比赛比分都接近，他们就不会太过激进，而且巴塞罗那的胜率也绝对不会这么高，更有可能是50%左右。

祝你好运！

附原文：

Barcelona enter this high-stakes semifinal fresh off a morale-boosting 3–2 extra-time victory over Real Madrid in the Spanish Cup final, securing their second trophy of the season. However, they may once again be without key players: strikerRobert Lewandowskiand left-backAlejandro Baldeare both doubtful due to thigh injuries. In Lewandowski’s absence, Ferran Torres typically a winger, has filled in at centre-forward. While he brings more pace, he lacks the physical presence and goal-scoring consistency of the Polish star.

Expected XI (4-3-3): Ter Stegen; Koundé, Araujo, Christensen, Cancelo; Gündoğan, De Jong, Pedri; Yamal, Ferran Torres, Raphinha

Inter Milan, meanwhile, are trying to rebound from a disappointing week, having lost to AC Milan in the Coppa Italia semifinal and Roma in Serie A. Despite controlling possession in Rome, Inter failed to convert their dominance into goals. The likely return of MarcusThuramup front is a major boost, though BenjaminPavardremains out. Inter will lean on their defensive solidity and counter-attacking structure.

- Expected XI (3-5-2): Sommer; Darmian, de Vrij, Bastoni; Dumfries, Barella, Calhanoglu, Mkhitaryan, Dimarco; Thuram, Lautaro

Barcelona will look to assert their dominance with an aggressive press and dynamic ball control, but Inter's compact 3–5–2 system and tactical discipline make them a tough nut to crack. The Italians have conceded only five goals in 12 Champions League games this season, including a gritty 4–3 aggregate win over Bayern Munich in the quarterfinals.

Barcelona has the edge at home, but Inter’s resilience and counter-attacking threat make this a close one. Expect a cagey, physical battle. 1-1? 2-2? I would rather choose the draw than X2, I feel Inter are not pushing it if they stay close all game, and no way Barcelona are this big favourites, more likely 50% or so.

Good luck!